10 Days Into Putin’s New Phase of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, Results in Minor Advances but the Clock Is Ticking

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Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, announced that the initial phase of “special military operations” in Ukraine had ended and that a new phase was being initiated. These units would then be sent to Russia and Belarus to rebuild the country.

As this was happening, I shared my assessment of the future. I have previously written about three battles in development, battles Russia needed to win.

We have received additional information since then. Russia intends to seize Odesa on the Black Sea coast. Russia also plans to seize Odesa, the Black Sea coast.

Now we are two weeks into the next phase. Let’s take a look at the progress.

Battle #1-Kherson

The dashed red line, which indicates where Russian units are operating, should be your focus. This is the most vulnerable area to towns being sold.

Overnight, a potentially major event occurred.

Only one train runs between Crimea and Kherson, Donbas. This will result in a substantial reduction of logistical support for Kherson.

Battle #2-Mariupol

Mariupol was not secured. Instead, the defenders were forced under a steel mill that can withstand a nuclear explosion to hide.

I describe it as

It is crucial to take Mariupol, as approximately 12 BTGs are still involved in reducing Mariupol’s defenses. Putin, the Russian high command, and other officials are determined to get rid of them. The perimeter won’t be more than one man thick to stop the defenders from breaking through.

Mariupol is shown standing astride Donetsk–Kherson’s main roads.

The Russians can’t leave Mariupol without a screening force and cannot spend their entire army to Donbas. They must resist the temptation to move the majority of their troops to Donbas.

To evaluate a battle, you can use a specific metric.

The main Russian combat force consists of Chechens. They are a mixture of Russian naval infantry, Donbas militia, and Russian naval infantry. This will reduce pressure on Mariupol’s defenses and will allow the twelve Battalion Tactical Groups (“BTGs”) that it has released to produce limited combat power.

Battle #3-Donbas.

Clausewitz’s schwerpunkt is this battle. It is vital. Russia must seize Donbas.

The original idea to create a double envelope between the salients of the north and the south was not realized.

Sloviansk, the most important terrain piece of the Russians, can be destroyed by the Russians.

The problem of supply is one; the other is Ukraine’s ongoing offensive towards the northwest.

This map clearly illustrates that gains made by either side cannot be limited by road width. This is where the Russian highway intersects the railway lines that supply the Donbas offensive.

What’s next?

On Tuesday, a Russian missile hit the bridge connecting Northern Odesa Oblast to the city of Odesa To Oblast’s Southern Half.

The bridge was destroyed. This means that gasoline and other consumer goods which once passed through Moldova and Romania have been halted.

Another theory is available.

This is absurd. Russia could attack Moldova and then join forces with the invasion force.

But time is not impermanent.

Unprecedented quantities of munitions have been sent to Ukraine. Ukrainian gun crews remain in training.

There are also a lot of tanks (see Ukraine Now has More Tanks than Russia and Things Look Worse in the Future), and my favorite, M-270 Multiple Rocket Launch System.

This means that Ukrainian troops will need to be trained in new systems. Because small arms ammunition can be hard to find in Ukraine, it may be difficult for Russian-spec ammunition.

Russia is lacking the combat power and logistics capabilities to make Operation Bagration-style advances. They will reach Russian forces without engaging in a decisive conflict and avoid major losses.

Russia will be concerned if reports of a large transfer of troops to Mariupol are true. They are located approximately 40 miles away from Mariupol. They are approximately 40 miles from Mariupol.

Kherson will host minor battles, with towns shifting their positions until Transnistria can settle its business. The new Ukrainian artillery may turn the tide if they don’t.

The 50-day invasion did not bring the Russian Army any benefits. There is very little evidence. There is little evidence to suggest that the Russian Army learned anything since the initial 50-day invasion.

There haven’t been major changes in the last ten days. These are the events from last week.

I believe that the Russians are in a difficult situation. Every day, more Ukrainian troops form and move onto the battlefield. Russia receives heavier weapons every day. Russia must find the sweet spot where its units can fight again. Ukraine must win Donbas.